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1. Europe’s Rapid Gas Storage Depletion Signals Urgent Demand for LNG Imports
Europe’s gas storage sites are depleting at the fastest rate since the 2020/21 winter, dropping to less than 43% full by February 18, 2025, compared to 65% a year ago and a decade-long seasonal average of nearly 47%. Even if withdrawals slow to record minimums in March, storage will begin the injection season below historical averages, with a mandate to significantly replenish by November 1, 2025.
2. ADNOC Gas Share Offering Enhances Investment Opportunities and Signals Robust Supply Growth
ADNOC is offering 3.1 billion shares (4% of ADNOC Gas’ capital) in a marketed offering closing February 21, 2025, aiming to boost liquidity and diversify its shareholder base. ADNOC Gas reported a record $5 billion adjusted net income in 2024 and plans over 40% EBITDA growth by 2029, supported by projects like Ruwais LNG.
3. Cheniere’s Expansion Plans and New U.S. Permitting Window Unlock Significant Supply Potential
Cheniere Energy aims to double its LNG output to 90 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) by leveraging the Trump administration’s new permitting window. The company reported $15.7 billion in 2024 revenues and expects $6.5–7.0 billion in 2025 adjusted EBITDA, with over 90% of 2025 volumes under long-term contracts. New capacity from CCL Stage 3 is already online, with more expansions planned.
4. Asian Buyers Shift Toward U.S. LNG to Reduce Trade Imbalances and Enhance Energy Security
Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and India are increasing U.S. LNG imports, notably from the Alaska LNG project, to address trade deficits and reduce reliance on Middle Eastern and Russian gas. Trump’s push for the $44 billion Alaska project highlights its strategic value, with Japan poised as a potential distribution hub for Asia.
5. Venture Global’s Capacity Boost and Spot Market Focus Stir Supply Dynamics
Venture Global’s Plaquemines LNG project capacity increased to 27.2 mtpa following FERC approval, with its first cargo shipped in December 2024. The company’s history of prioritizing spot market sales over long-term contracts continues to spark debate, with commercial operations at Calcasieu Pass set for April 2025.