U.S. EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook Natural Gas Exports 2019 

Yesterday the U.S. Energy Information Agency released the December 2018 short term energy outlook. The EIA expects strong growth in U.S. natural gas production to put downward pressure on prices in 2019. EIA expects Henry Hub natural gas spot prices to average $3.11/MMBtu in 2019, down 6 cents from the 2018 average and down from a forecast average price of $3.88/MMBtu in the fourth quarter of 2018.

EIA forecasts that dry natural gas production will average 83.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2018, up 8.5 Bcf/d from 2017. Both the level and volume growth of natural gas production in 2018 would establish new records. EIA expects natural gas production will continue to rise in 2019 to an average of 90.0 Bcf/d.

The EIA expects LNG gross exports to peak in Q4 2019 at 6.59 billion cubic feet per day. The EIA expects U.S. natural gas pipeline gross exports to peak in Q1 2019 at 9.36 billion cubic feet per day.